This is a story that happened in 17th century Europe. Tulips were introduced into Holland before the 17th century but it did not take long for the flowers to gain popularity among the upper classes. Flowers of such beauty and rarity soon became symbols of power and prestige and the rich tried their utmost to lay their hands on some to display in their gardens. When more people learned of the prices that the rich were willing to pay for tulips, they knew they just found a 'get-rich-quick' gold mine.
By 1634, the whole country was so fascinated by tulips that all other activities almost came to a stop. People were trading in tulips and even buying and selling un-sprouted flowers. It was similar to the futures market today, where traders are buying and selling crude oil or cotton which they will never see. It was documented that one rare bulb fetched a price equivalent to ten tons of cheese. As the tulip trades increased, regular marts were set up on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam and other towns. That happened in the year 1636 when mania was reaching its peak.
Like all speculative bubbles, many made a fortune in the beginning. As the prices moved in one direction, you only needed to buy low and sell high, buy high and sell higher. After the initial gains, confidence rose and many sold away their assets in order to invest more money in tulips, hoping to make more money. The temptation was so great that those who were watching from the sidelines also rushed to the tulip-marts. People often said in jest that one should sell stocks when housewives were talking about stocks in the market. Mass participation was a sign that the market had peaked. At that time, everyone thought that the high demand for tulips would continue forever and prices could only go up because more and more people from all over the world would start to like tulips. This was similar to the early nineties when China opened up its economy. If a listed company announced its intention to enter the Chinese market, its stock price rose because the profit potential was limitless if every single Chinese bought its product.
When the prices of tulips reached such an exorbitant level, few people bought them for planting in their gardens. The real demand for the flowers was exaggerated by people who were buying them for speculation, not appreciation. The bubble finally burst in 1637. For some unknown reasons maybe a group of people suddenly realised the madness tulips failed to command the usual inflated prices in a gathering. Word spread and the market crashed. As in all asset bubbles, it took time to propel prices to such outlandish levels, but it only took a single pierce to burst the bubble. When confidence was destroyed, it could not be recovered and prices kept falling until they were one-tenth of those set during the peak. Soon the nobles became poor and the rich became paupers. Cries of distress resounded everywhere in Holland.
Why do investment professionals like to bring up this story that happened centuries ago? This is because greed is part of human nature and short memory is an investor trait, we just never seem to learn from past mistakes. Recently, many have pointed to the American investors' craze over Internet stocks as another 'tulipmania'. Whether these are really 'Internet tulips' remain to be seen. However there are tell-tale signs that the buying is overdone.
There is no denial that the Internet is an important development in this century, but it is madness when every Internet stock jumps in multiples and every company that announces conducting their business over the net witnesses their stock prices going up. Not to mention that some of these Internet stocks are trading at hundreds times PE and some will not report any profit for the next few years !
In the early eighties when personal computers just appeared, PC-related stocks were also the darlings of investors, just like Internet stocks. However, many of the top brands then did not survive and most of the leaders in the PC industry today were not set up then. A look at the table shows the extent of the high valuations enjoyed by Internet stocks, as evidenced by their high market capitalisation (think of it as the price in the PE ratio) relative to their low annual revenues.
為郁金香瘋狂
這里要講一個發(fā)生在17世紀歐洲的故事。郁金香在17世紀傳入荷 蘭，沒多久的時間貴族就瘋狂愛上了它。這美麗兼稀有的花朵頓時成 了權(quán)力和威望的象征，只要是有錢人都千方百計找?guī)锥浞N在自己的庭 院供玩賞。當越來越多人知道貴族們愿意為一束郁金香付出高昂的價 格時，他們曉得已經(jīng)尋到夢寐以求的金礦。
1634年，荷蘭百業(yè)荒廢，全國上下都為郁金香瘋狂，進行郁金香 的交易，甚至買賣還未種植的花朵。就像現(xiàn)代的期貨市場，交易員都 在買賣見也未見過的石油或棉花。有人曾記載，當時一個稀有的球莖 竟然叫價相等于十噸重芝士的價值。當郁金香交易開始頻繁，大家就 在阿姆斯特丹股票交易所和一些城鎮(zhèn)設立了固定的市場進行買賣。那 一年是1636，郁金香交易的投機性也變本加厲。
像所有的投機泡沫，人們都在開始時賺了錢。由于價錢節(jié)節(jié)上升 ，你只須買低賣高，買高賣更高。得了甜頭后，大家信心大增，傾家 蕩產(chǎn)把更多的錢投入郁金香買賣，希望賺取更多的錢。原本旁觀的人 也受不了誘惑，都加入瘋狂搶購的隊伍。這就是投資行家所講的“連 巴剎里的阿嫂也談股票”現(xiàn)象。這是價錢達到巔峰的征兆。人們都普 遍認為郁金香的供不應求將永遠持續(xù)下去，價錢一定會上升，因為人 們以為全世界會有越來越多的人愛上它。這又有點像90年代初，中國 開放后，任何宣布進軍中國市場的上市公司，都受到投資者的垂青， 因為人們認為只要每一個中國人購買它的產(chǎn)品，公司的錢就會賺個不 完。
郁金香的價值達到這個地步，已沒有多少人是買它來種在庭園里 。多數(shù)的人都想從中牟取暴利，而不是純粹想欣賞它，所以真正的需 求被夸大了，泡沫終于在1637年的某一天破了。不曉得為了什么，可 能有一群人清醒了，郁金香在一次交易中無法保持以往的高價錢。消 息一傳十，十傳百，神話破滅了。像所有的泡沫，要把它吹漲需要一 段時間，可是輕輕一戮破，它即刻破滅了。人們的信心一旦喪失，就 難挽回，結(jié)果價錢一跌再跌，只剩高峰時期的一成。瞬息間，貴族變 貧民，富翁成乞丐，荷蘭陷入一片蕭條。
為什么幾百年前的事，如今還被人津津樂道？因為人的貪性不變 ，記性不好，雖有前車之鑒，可是仍栽了進去。
遠的不說，最近就有 人指出美國股市出現(xiàn)了“網(wǎng)絡郁金香”。這些網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡股是不是郁金 香，應留給后人去評定，可是卻有跡象顯示有過熱的情況。 無可否認的，網(wǎng)絡是本世紀末的重大發(fā)展?？墒侨魏尉W(wǎng)絡股都飆 升，任何公司只要宣布要上網(wǎng)做生意，隔天股價就會上漲，這就接近 瘋狂了。不說有些網(wǎng)絡股的本益比是百倍以上，有些公司在未來幾年 還不能賺錢呢！其實80年代初，個人電腦面市時，許多人也對個人電 腦制造商寄予厚望?？墒钱斈瓿擅钠放迫缃褚咽幦粺o存，而今天數(shù) 一數(shù)二的電腦制造商，當時仍未成立。本文附上一個圖表，顯示網(wǎng)絡 股的高估價，從中你可以看到它們的高市值（可以把它當做本益比中 的股價）與低營業(yè)額的懸殊對比。
By 1634, the whole country was so fascinated by tulips that all other activities almost came to a stop. People were trading in tulips and even buying and selling un-sprouted flowers. It was similar to the futures market today, where traders are buying and selling crude oil or cotton which they will never see. It was documented that one rare bulb fetched a price equivalent to ten tons of cheese. As the tulip trades increased, regular marts were set up on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam and other towns. That happened in the year 1636 when mania was reaching its peak.
Like all speculative bubbles, many made a fortune in the beginning. As the prices moved in one direction, you only needed to buy low and sell high, buy high and sell higher. After the initial gains, confidence rose and many sold away their assets in order to invest more money in tulips, hoping to make more money. The temptation was so great that those who were watching from the sidelines also rushed to the tulip-marts. People often said in jest that one should sell stocks when housewives were talking about stocks in the market. Mass participation was a sign that the market had peaked. At that time, everyone thought that the high demand for tulips would continue forever and prices could only go up because more and more people from all over the world would start to like tulips. This was similar to the early nineties when China opened up its economy. If a listed company announced its intention to enter the Chinese market, its stock price rose because the profit potential was limitless if every single Chinese bought its product.
When the prices of tulips reached such an exorbitant level, few people bought them for planting in their gardens. The real demand for the flowers was exaggerated by people who were buying them for speculation, not appreciation. The bubble finally burst in 1637. For some unknown reasons maybe a group of people suddenly realised the madness tulips failed to command the usual inflated prices in a gathering. Word spread and the market crashed. As in all asset bubbles, it took time to propel prices to such outlandish levels, but it only took a single pierce to burst the bubble. When confidence was destroyed, it could not be recovered and prices kept falling until they were one-tenth of those set during the peak. Soon the nobles became poor and the rich became paupers. Cries of distress resounded everywhere in Holland.
Why do investment professionals like to bring up this story that happened centuries ago? This is because greed is part of human nature and short memory is an investor trait, we just never seem to learn from past mistakes. Recently, many have pointed to the American investors' craze over Internet stocks as another 'tulipmania'. Whether these are really 'Internet tulips' remain to be seen. However there are tell-tale signs that the buying is overdone.
There is no denial that the Internet is an important development in this century, but it is madness when every Internet stock jumps in multiples and every company that announces conducting their business over the net witnesses their stock prices going up. Not to mention that some of these Internet stocks are trading at hundreds times PE and some will not report any profit for the next few years !
In the early eighties when personal computers just appeared, PC-related stocks were also the darlings of investors, just like Internet stocks. However, many of the top brands then did not survive and most of the leaders in the PC industry today were not set up then. A look at the table shows the extent of the high valuations enjoyed by Internet stocks, as evidenced by their high market capitalisation (think of it as the price in the PE ratio) relative to their low annual revenues.
為郁金香瘋狂
這里要講一個發(fā)生在17世紀歐洲的故事。郁金香在17世紀傳入荷 蘭，沒多久的時間貴族就瘋狂愛上了它。這美麗兼稀有的花朵頓時成 了權(quán)力和威望的象征，只要是有錢人都千方百計找?guī)锥浞N在自己的庭 院供玩賞。當越來越多人知道貴族們愿意為一束郁金香付出高昂的價 格時，他們曉得已經(jīng)尋到夢寐以求的金礦。
1634年，荷蘭百業(yè)荒廢，全國上下都為郁金香瘋狂，進行郁金香 的交易，甚至買賣還未種植的花朵。就像現(xiàn)代的期貨市場，交易員都 在買賣見也未見過的石油或棉花。有人曾記載，當時一個稀有的球莖 竟然叫價相等于十噸重芝士的價值。當郁金香交易開始頻繁，大家就 在阿姆斯特丹股票交易所和一些城鎮(zhèn)設立了固定的市場進行買賣。那 一年是1636，郁金香交易的投機性也變本加厲。
像所有的投機泡沫，人們都在開始時賺了錢。由于價錢節(jié)節(jié)上升 ，你只須買低賣高，買高賣更高。得了甜頭后，大家信心大增，傾家 蕩產(chǎn)把更多的錢投入郁金香買賣，希望賺取更多的錢。原本旁觀的人 也受不了誘惑，都加入瘋狂搶購的隊伍。這就是投資行家所講的“連 巴剎里的阿嫂也談股票”現(xiàn)象。這是價錢達到巔峰的征兆。人們都普 遍認為郁金香的供不應求將永遠持續(xù)下去，價錢一定會上升，因為人 們以為全世界會有越來越多的人愛上它。這又有點像90年代初，中國 開放后，任何宣布進軍中國市場的上市公司，都受到投資者的垂青， 因為人們認為只要每一個中國人購買它的產(chǎn)品，公司的錢就會賺個不 完。
郁金香的價值達到這個地步，已沒有多少人是買它來種在庭園里 。多數(shù)的人都想從中牟取暴利，而不是純粹想欣賞它，所以真正的需 求被夸大了，泡沫終于在1637年的某一天破了。不曉得為了什么，可 能有一群人清醒了，郁金香在一次交易中無法保持以往的高價錢。消 息一傳十，十傳百，神話破滅了。像所有的泡沫，要把它吹漲需要一 段時間，可是輕輕一戮破，它即刻破滅了。人們的信心一旦喪失，就 難挽回，結(jié)果價錢一跌再跌，只剩高峰時期的一成。瞬息間，貴族變 貧民，富翁成乞丐，荷蘭陷入一片蕭條。
為什么幾百年前的事，如今還被人津津樂道？因為人的貪性不變 ，記性不好，雖有前車之鑒，可是仍栽了進去。
遠的不說，最近就有 人指出美國股市出現(xiàn)了“網(wǎng)絡郁金香”。這些網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡股是不是郁金 香，應留給后人去評定，可是卻有跡象顯示有過熱的情況。 無可否認的，網(wǎng)絡是本世紀末的重大發(fā)展?？墒侨魏尉W(wǎng)絡股都飆 升，任何公司只要宣布要上網(wǎng)做生意，隔天股價就會上漲，這就接近 瘋狂了。不說有些網(wǎng)絡股的本益比是百倍以上，有些公司在未來幾年 還不能賺錢呢！其實80年代初，個人電腦面市時，許多人也對個人電 腦制造商寄予厚望?？墒钱斈瓿擅钠放迫缃褚咽幦粺o存，而今天數(shù) 一數(shù)二的電腦制造商，當時仍未成立。本文附上一個圖表，顯示網(wǎng)絡 股的高估價，從中你可以看到它們的高市值（可以把它當做本益比中 的股價）與低營業(yè)額的懸殊對比。