BEC中級閱讀: IMF總裁警告:美元可能暴跌

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美元兌歐元匯率昨日創(chuàng)下歷史新低,原因是國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁羅德里戈?拉托(Rodrigo Rato)警告稱,美元可能遭遇大幅下挫,動搖投資者對美國資產(chǎn)的信心。
    The dollar hit a record low against the euro yesterday as Rodrigo Rato, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the US currency could suffer a dramatic fall that would shake confidence in American assets.
    這位即將卸任的IMF總裁表示,美元的貶值一直比較有序,但他警告稱,美元存在遭遇失控拋售的風(fēng)險,而這種拋售將會影響全球主要經(jīng)濟體的增長。
    The outgoing IMF managing director said the depreciation of the dollar had been orderly, but cautioned there was a risk of a runaway sell-off that would hit growth in major economies.
    美元無序下跌的風(fēng)險在上周末期間似乎有所增加,因為IMF此前未能就內(nèi)部改革達成一致。這一改革本將為IMF在管理全球經(jīng)濟失衡中發(fā)揮更大作用創(chuàng)造條件。
    The risks of a disorderly fall in the US currency appeared to increase over the weekend after the IMF failed to agree internal reforms that would have set the stage for it to take on a greater role managing global economic imbalances.
    “截至目前,匯率的變動一直比較有序,并且符合基本面。但存在美元暴跌的風(fēng)險,這種暴跌可能是因為投資者對美元資產(chǎn)失去信心,而它本身也可能促使投資者對美元資產(chǎn)失去信心,”拉托表示。
    “Up to now, movements in exchange rates have been orderly and in line with fundamentals. But there are risks that an abrupt fall in the dollar could either be triggered by, or itself trigger, a loss of confidence in dollar assets,” Mr Rato said.
    美國財政部長漢克?保爾森(Hank Paulson)表示,IMF需要加大力度,更有效地監(jiān)督成員國的匯率政策。他補充稱,這對IMF來說是個“定義問題”。
    Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, said the IMF needed to press on with efforts to make its surveillance of member country exchange rate policies more effective, adding it was a “defining issue” for the fund.
    他表示:“IMF職員需要挽起袖子,深入分析,拿出判斷。如果沒有實實在在的匯率監(jiān)督、治理和管理,改革就是一句空話?!?BR>    “IMF staff need to roll up their sleeves, undertake thorough analysis and put forward their judgments. Without meaningful exchange rate surveillance, governance and management, reform will ring hollow,” he said.
    在上周末期間,保爾森與七國集團(G7)其它國家的財長們一道,敦促中國允許人民幣更快升值。
    Mr Paulson joined finance ministers from the Group of Seven most advanced economies over the weekend in urging China to let its renminbi appreciate more rapidly.
    一些決策者還擔(dān)心,美元的貶值會不成比例地為歐元和加元等貨幣吸收,而包括人民幣在內(nèi)的亞洲貨幣卻不會受到太大影響。
    Some policymakers also expressed concern that the fall in the value of the US dollar was being disproportionately absorbed by currencies such as the euro and Canadian dollar, rather than Asian currencies, including the renminbi.
    拉托警告稱,這種趨勢可能會阻礙全球經(jīng)濟增長,助長這些國家的民粹主義經(jīng)濟政策。他補充道,全球經(jīng)濟可能處在一個“轉(zhuǎn)折點”。
    Mr Rato warned that this trend could hamper growth and fuel support for populist economic policies in these countries, adding that the global economy could be at an “inflection point”.
    他表示,在那些實施靈活匯率制的國家(包括歐元區(qū)),匯率的上升可能會影響他們的經(jīng)濟增長前景,而在這種情況下,來自貿(mào)易保護主義者的壓力會變得更大。
    He said there was “a risk that exchange rate appreciation in countries with flexible exchange rates – including the euro area – could hurt their growth prospects, and that in these circumstances protectionist pressures could worsen”.