CHINESE Premier Zhu Rongji is currently on his tour to four South-east Asian countries. Not long ago, Chinese President Jiang Zemin visited the same region. The unusual visits by China's top leaders within merely a year highlight the importance Beijing accords to the region.
What makes China think so highly of South-east Asia？
Here I would like to offer my two cents' worth.
First of all, the region holds strategic significance to Beijing's relationship with Taiwan. On one hand, countries in the region have always been on good terms with Taiwan, with their government leaders pledging friendship and non-governmental sectors keeping close ties among them.
On the other hand, these countries' support for － or at least acquiescence in － China's policy towards Taiwan is of great importance to Beijing. They would be the first to suffer from any turmoil arising in the Taiwan Strait and, unless China sets up a stable relationship with them, they would definitely have to seek protection from the United States.
Second, internationally China needs a peaceful environment for its modernisation drive, and first it needs peace on its borders. With stability already ensured on its north and the border disputes with Russia, Kazakhstan and Kirghizia now being solved, Beijing has turned its attention to the issue of sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea.
As South-east Asian countries have been disputing China's claim to the Pratas Islands, the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands, more dialogues and contact are needed to solve the problem.
Finally, when it joins the World Trade Organisation, China will bring about greater pressure rather than more opportunities to the region.
China's exports are similar to those of South-east Asia, and its labour-intensive and export-oriented industries more or less duplicate those of the region. So, with a China made economically stronger by its impending WTO membership, South-east Asian countries will surely have a tougher competitor to cope with.
（The commentary was first published in Hong Kong Economic Times. Translated by Allen Zhuang）
北京高度重視東南亞
朱（金容）基繼江澤民之后,出訪東南亞四國。一年之內(nèi),中國兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人出訪同一地區(qū),甚屬少見,也充分說明中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對(duì)東南亞的高度重視。
在江、朱的戰(zhàn)略眼光中,東南亞的重要性何在？筆者的分析有這么幾點(diǎn)：
一、在臺(tái)灣問題上,東南亞諸國有極重要的戰(zhàn)略地位。這一方面是臺(tái)灣和東南亞諸國,素來友好,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之間有交情,民間關(guān)系更密切。
另一方面臺(tái)海若有風(fēng)波,首先波及的是東南亞諸國,他們對(duì)北京的對(duì)臺(tái)政策是否理解、支持至關(guān)重要,若不能安定他們,分分鐘可能迫使他們要求美國保護(hù)。
二、中國要有一個(gè)安定的國際環(huán)境,才能有利于專心國內(nèi)建設(shè),但首先要有一個(gè)安全、平和的周邊態(tài)勢。
北邊現(xiàn)在大體安定,和俄羅斯、哈薩斯坦、吉爾吉斯等國的邊界問題,也正在逐一簽約解決,問題比較多的是南邊,東沙、南沙、西沙的主權(quán)問題,時(shí)常招引與東南亞諸國的爭論,有爭論更需要溝通、對(duì)話。
三、中國加入世界貿(mào)易組織后,對(duì)東南亞諸國是機(jī)遇,但更多的是壓力。中國外銷產(chǎn)品相當(dāng)多的和東南亞的產(chǎn)品重復(fù),經(jīng)濟(jì)形態(tài)也有很多相似之處（如大家都有很多勞動(dòng)密集型的加工出口企業(yè)）,中國入世貿(mào)后,外資活力必然大增,東南亞諸國要和中國競爭,豈不是更為吃力？ （原載《香港經(jīng)濟(jì)日?qǐng)?bào)》）
What makes China think so highly of South-east Asia？
Here I would like to offer my two cents' worth.
First of all, the region holds strategic significance to Beijing's relationship with Taiwan. On one hand, countries in the region have always been on good terms with Taiwan, with their government leaders pledging friendship and non-governmental sectors keeping close ties among them.
On the other hand, these countries' support for － or at least acquiescence in － China's policy towards Taiwan is of great importance to Beijing. They would be the first to suffer from any turmoil arising in the Taiwan Strait and, unless China sets up a stable relationship with them, they would definitely have to seek protection from the United States.
Second, internationally China needs a peaceful environment for its modernisation drive, and first it needs peace on its borders. With stability already ensured on its north and the border disputes with Russia, Kazakhstan and Kirghizia now being solved, Beijing has turned its attention to the issue of sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea.
As South-east Asian countries have been disputing China's claim to the Pratas Islands, the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands, more dialogues and contact are needed to solve the problem.
Finally, when it joins the World Trade Organisation, China will bring about greater pressure rather than more opportunities to the region.
China's exports are similar to those of South-east Asia, and its labour-intensive and export-oriented industries more or less duplicate those of the region. So, with a China made economically stronger by its impending WTO membership, South-east Asian countries will surely have a tougher competitor to cope with.
（The commentary was first published in Hong Kong Economic Times. Translated by Allen Zhuang）
北京高度重視東南亞
朱（金容）基繼江澤民之后,出訪東南亞四國。一年之內(nèi),中國兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人出訪同一地區(qū),甚屬少見,也充分說明中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對(duì)東南亞的高度重視。
在江、朱的戰(zhàn)略眼光中,東南亞的重要性何在？筆者的分析有這么幾點(diǎn)：
一、在臺(tái)灣問題上,東南亞諸國有極重要的戰(zhàn)略地位。這一方面是臺(tái)灣和東南亞諸國,素來友好,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之間有交情,民間關(guān)系更密切。
另一方面臺(tái)海若有風(fēng)波,首先波及的是東南亞諸國,他們對(duì)北京的對(duì)臺(tái)政策是否理解、支持至關(guān)重要,若不能安定他們,分分鐘可能迫使他們要求美國保護(hù)。
二、中國要有一個(gè)安定的國際環(huán)境,才能有利于專心國內(nèi)建設(shè),但首先要有一個(gè)安全、平和的周邊態(tài)勢。
北邊現(xiàn)在大體安定,和俄羅斯、哈薩斯坦、吉爾吉斯等國的邊界問題,也正在逐一簽約解決,問題比較多的是南邊,東沙、南沙、西沙的主權(quán)問題,時(shí)常招引與東南亞諸國的爭論,有爭論更需要溝通、對(duì)話。
三、中國加入世界貿(mào)易組織后,對(duì)東南亞諸國是機(jī)遇,但更多的是壓力。中國外銷產(chǎn)品相當(dāng)多的和東南亞的產(chǎn)品重復(fù),經(jīng)濟(jì)形態(tài)也有很多相似之處（如大家都有很多勞動(dòng)密集型的加工出口企業(yè)）,中國入世貿(mào)后,外資活力必然大增,東南亞諸國要和中國競爭,豈不是更為吃力？ （原載《香港經(jīng)濟(jì)日?qǐng)?bào)》）