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In China's Jiangsu province, near Shanghai, mountains of solar panels sitting around a factory owned by Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) are fast losing their value.
Trina and other Chinese solar companies, including Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd (STP.N) and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd (YGE.N), hold inventory of about 5 gigawatts (GW), analysts say, nearly one-sixth of annual global demand.
The stockpiles would be valued at about $4.5 billion based on the average selling price of 87 cents for a panel in the second quarter, but the glut means prices are falling fast.
The companies, which face a steep anti-dumping duty in the United States and possible tariffs in top market Europe, have few options but sell the existing excess cheaply in China.
"With the anti-dumping investigation starting in Europe, Chinese companies are avoiding shipping to the continent at the moment," said analyst Stefan de Haan at business information provider IHS Inc.
"This will further increase inventory over the next few weeks or so."
Companies have already started slashing production but they have a long way to go. Chinese makers have the capacity to produce 50 GW of solar panels a year -- well above global annual demand for 30 GW.
Analysts have taken note and have pushed up their loss forecasts for Yingli, Suntech, Trina and JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd (JASO.O), Thomson Reuters StarMine data shows.
Panel prices are already the lowest in China and they are expected to fall further below 58 cents per watt, according to IHS. It says prices in the United States, Canada, and Mexico are expected to be 69 cents per watt.
EUROPEAN BLUES
China sold about 21 billion euros ($27.42 billion) in solar panels and components to the European Union in 2011 -- some 60 percent of all Chinese solar exports.
But the regulatory problems have come on top of the global glut -- which formed after Chinese manufacturers ramped up production just as top European markets cut subsidies.
Stockpiles of solar panels at Chinese firms now average about 110 days of sales, three times the 42 days of inventory averaged globally, Thomson Reuters data shows.
European solar companies, led by Solarworld AG (SWVG.DE), allege that Chinese producers sell panels below market value, prompting a European regulatory investigation.
Chinese companies have denied the charges, but to minimize losses from any eventuality, some are looking to cut production. Suntech, the world's largest solar panel maker, said on Monday it would slash its capacity to produce cells, used to make panels, by a quarter.
To get rid of excess inventory, Trina has also lowered production, raised sales in China and is looking at newer markets, said Thomas Young, a spokesman for the company.
DEEPER CUTS NEEDED
GTM Research analyst Shyam Mehta said about 15 GW of Chinese capacity needs to be taken offline for supply and demand to come into a balance.
"Given the continuing price pressure in the sector, with very little hope of the prices stabilizing at the current levels, it is still the best strategy to try to keep your inventories as low as possible, and sell your products," said Thiemo Lang, senior portfolio manager at Zurich-based Sustainable Asset Management.
Lang, who manages a fund that has $900 million in cleantech assets under management, says solar panel and cell companies offer little value now because of the chronic oversupply and regulatory uncertainty.
The glut has already sent prices crashing, with solar panels, which cost as much as $4.20 a watt in 2008, diving 80 percent in the past four years.
Most of the Chinese companies wrote down the value of their inventory in the second quarter and their shares have lost about three-quarters of their value in the past year.
With doors to Europe and the United States closing, Chinese companies have to sell at home, but that market would have to expand massively to cater to their production.
China's consumption of solar power products is expected to jump to about 3.5 GW in the second half of the year from 2 GW in the first, Mehta said.
The country last month raised its 2015 target for solar power capacity by 40 percent to about 21 GW, the third rise in just over a year -- but sales are needed now, in 2012.
"The Chinese companies (would be) more than willing to try to deploy their modules in their own country, but it seems that the overall Chinese market won't be more than 4 GW this year, and that the pricing will be quite poor," said Lang.
While most other companies have much lower inventories, two U.S. firms, SunPower Corp (SPWR.O) and First Solar Inc (FSLR.O), had stocks just 15 days lower than their Chinese rivals, yet they were among the very few profitable solar companies in the June quarter.
相關(guān)中文資料
距離上海不遠(yuǎn)的江蘇省,天合光能(Trina Solar)(TSL.N: 行情)工廠里的太陽(yáng)能面板存貨堆積如山,價(jià)值迅速流失.
多位分析師表示,天合光能、尚德電力(Suntech Power)(STP.N: 行情)及英利綠色能源控股(Yingli Green Energy Holding)(YGE.N: 行情)等中國(guó)光伏業(yè)者手中持有的存貨約5千兆瓦(gigawatt,GW),幾乎是全球年度需求的六分之一.
根據(jù)第二季平均每片面板售價(jià)0.87美元來(lái)計(jì)算,這些存貨的估值約為45億美元,但供給過(guò)剩導(dǎo)致價(jià)格快速下跌.
這些公司在美國(guó)面臨高額的反傾銷(xiāo)稅,恐怕在的歐洲市場(chǎng)也會(huì)面臨額外稅賦,它們所剩選項(xiàng)已然無(wú)多,恐怕得在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)低價(jià)賣(mài)出過(guò)剩存貨.
"在歐洲展開(kāi)反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查的情形下,中國(guó)企業(yè)目前正避免向歐陸出貨,"企業(yè)資訊供應(yīng)商IHS Inc分析師Stefan de Haan表示.
"這將導(dǎo)致存貨在未來(lái)數(shù)周繼續(xù)增加."
公司已經(jīng)開(kāi)始減產(chǎn),但還有漫漫長(zhǎng)路要走.中國(guó)光伏企業(yè)每年的太陽(yáng)能面板產(chǎn)能為50 GW,遠(yuǎn)高於全球需求的30 GW.
瀏覽太陽(yáng)能面板庫(kù)存狀況圖表,請(qǐng)點(diǎn)選:(r.reuters.com/heg72t)
湯森路透StarMine數(shù)據(jù)顯示,多位分析師已經(jīng)看到這個(gè)現(xiàn)象,并已經(jīng)調(diào)高英利、尚德、天合及晶澳太陽(yáng)能(JA Solar Holdings)(JASO.O: 行情)的虧損預(yù)估.
根據(jù)IHS,中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上的太陽(yáng)能面板價(jià)格已經(jīng)處?kù)蹲畹退疁?zhǔn),可能還會(huì)進(jìn)一步跌至每瓦0.58美元.IHS稱(chēng)預(yù)期美國(guó)、加拿大、墨西哥等地太陽(yáng)能面板將為每瓦0.69美元.
歐洲陰霾
中國(guó)2011年向歐盟銷(xiāo)售約210億歐元(274.2億美元)的太陽(yáng)能面板和相關(guān)組件,約相當(dāng)於中國(guó)太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)出口總值的60%.
在歐洲各市場(chǎng)調(diào)降補(bǔ)助之際,中國(guó)業(yè)者大舉提高產(chǎn)能,導(dǎo)致全球供給過(guò)剩,之後監(jiān)管問(wèn)題接踵而至.
湯森路透數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)企業(yè)太陽(yáng)能面板存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天期約110天,是全球均值42天的近三倍.
以Solarworld AG(SWVG.DE: 行情)為首的歐洲光伏業(yè)者指控中國(guó)生產(chǎn)商低價(jià)傾銷(xiāo)太陽(yáng)能面板,引起歐洲監(jiān)管*調(diào)查.
中國(guó)企業(yè)已經(jīng)否認(rèn)指控,但是為了以防萬(wàn)一,將損失減到最低,一些企業(yè)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始減產(chǎn).全球的太陽(yáng)能板制造商--尚德電力周一表示,太陽(yáng)能電池產(chǎn)能將削減四分之一.
而天合光能公司人士Thomas Young稱(chēng),為處理多余庫(kù)存,公司也已減產(chǎn)并提高在中國(guó)的銷(xiāo)售,同時(shí)尋求新市場(chǎng).
需要進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)
GTM Research的分析師Shyam Mehta稱(chēng),若要達(dá)到供需平衡,中國(guó)需要減產(chǎn)15 GW左右.
Sustainable資產(chǎn)管理公司的資深投資組合經(jīng)理Thiemo Lang稱(chēng),"由於這個(gè)行業(yè)持續(xù)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格壓力,價(jià)格在當(dāng)前水準(zhǔn)企穩(wěn)的希望渺茫,因此策略仍然是盡可能壓低庫(kù)存."
他還表示,因長(zhǎng)期供過(guò)於求以及監(jiān)管的不確定性,太陽(yáng)能板和電池企業(yè)當(dāng)前能提供的價(jià)值很低.Thiemo Lang管理一支規(guī)模9億美元,投資清潔能源資產(chǎn)的基金.
供過(guò)於求已讓價(jià)格崩跌,太陽(yáng)能板每瓦價(jià)格在2008年達(dá)到4.20美元,過(guò)去四年內(nèi)已暴跌80%.
多數(shù)中國(guó)企業(yè)在第二季減記庫(kù)存,股價(jià)也在過(guò)去一年跌去約四分之三.
隨著通往歐洲和美國(guó)的大門(mén)關(guān)閉,中國(guó)企業(yè)不得不轉(zhuǎn)向內(nèi)銷(xiāo),但是國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)需要大規(guī)模擴(kuò)張才能消化這些產(chǎn)量.
Mehta表示,預(yù)計(jì)下半年中國(guó)太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)會(huì)從上半年的2 GW增加到3.5 GW.
中國(guó)上個(gè)月宣布將2015年太陽(yáng)能裝機(jī)目標(biāo)上調(diào)40%至約21 GW,為一年多來(lái)第三次上調(diào),但是現(xiàn)在就必需能把產(chǎn)品賣(mài)掉.
Lang說(shuō)道,"中國(guó)企業(yè)會(huì)很樂(lè)意在本國(guó)出售產(chǎn)品,但看來(lái)今年中國(guó)整體市場(chǎng)不會(huì)超過(guò)4 GW,而且定價(jià)也會(huì)很差."